Think Immigration: Immigration Is the Solution, Not the Problem

It’s election season. We’re hearing that the United States has an “immigration crisis.” The phrase is so well-worn that even some Democrats and liberals use it.

Well, the United States does have an immigration crisis. But it’s not what you think.

Immigration is dangerously low. And we need much more of it.

Let’s look at the numbers. The world has very few migrants, and of those, fewer still come to the United States Only 3.6% of the world’s population are migrants – and of those, only about 18% are in the United States. Immigration to the United States has indeed grown since 1990, and is now the primary source of population growth – but even so, only about 14% of the population is foreign-born.

So why do we keep hearing that there’s an immigration crisis? That’s politics, not data. Politicians, pundits, and malicious actors whip up anti-immigrant feelings, peddling stories of immigrants competing with native-born citizens for jobs, using social services, and changing cultures and identities. It’s true that immigration may carry short-term costs – and these costs should be more equitably shared. But still, any costs are more than paid for in the long term, as immigrants enrich America with their labor supply, tax revenue, consumer demand, innovation, and entrepreneurship.

Despite the political rhetoric, there is no crisis of high immigration. Instead, we have a crisis of low immigration.

Our biggest population challenge is not growth (whether birth or immigration), but aging. Americans are generally living longer than ever before and having fewer kids than ever before (below the population replacement level of 2.1 children). The average American is getting older, and our senior citizen population is projected to grow nearly 50% by 2050. Older Americans are depending on a future filled with young Americans – who are not being born.

Uneven aging threatens our society. Younger workers will struggle to support a disproportionate number of older people. This scenario could disrupt labor markets, threaten retirement systems, inflate healthcare costs, and slow economic growth. We can see this already in Japan and South Korea, which are rapidly aging. These countries’ low immigration rates have been fiscally unsustainable, and they are now relaxing some immigration restrictions.

Some might ask: Can’t employers fill labor shortages with technology instead of immigrants? Yes, sometimes – but technology, automation, and AI cannot do many jobs. Think of service professionals doing in-person work, or work requiring advanced education, or healthcare workers for aging populations (for which there is a labor shortage). To design and implement these technologies, we will need people trained in these fields – who are often immigrants! Unlike human workers, technology will not increase tax bases and will not solve declining fertility and depopulation.

So – the threats are serious, but we can solve them. We just need more people. Fortunately, the American Dream is still a draw!

Immigrants are the population replacement we need. Compared to native-born citizens, immigrants are more likely to be young and working-age, and tend to have higher fertility. Over the last two decades, immigrants made up 80% of all college student growth, and immigrants and their U.S.-born children made up all civilian labor force growth. Higher immigration rates can stabilize, grow, and revitalize our population. (For specific ideas to increase immigration to support senior citizens, check out AILA member Aaron Kochenderfer’s blog post.)

Simply put – our society needs more people to survive and many of those people should be immigrants. Unfortunately, we are receiving far fewer immigrants than we need. We must fix this shortfall.

In this election year – and every year, so long as our country keeps aging – we must look past political rhetoric and see clearly. We must save our country from slow decay. We must promote immigration. We must see its long-term gains and not just its short-term costs. Let’s solve our real immigration crisis. Let’s welcome new Americans!

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